A new United Nations report insists there is “no credible pathway” to keeping global temperatures below the 1.5°C threshold. This threshold was a legally-binding promise made at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference. Nations across the globe agreed to keep average temperatures from exceeding a 1.5°C increase from pre-industrial levels. Seven years later, nations continue to make depthless pledges that the UN fears are not strong enough to avoid a climate disaster.
2021 Pledges
Recent efforts made in the 2021 climate summit in Glasgow are predicted to cut only less than 1% of projected 2030 greenhouse gas emissions. However, UNEP states that 45% reductions are needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
As it stands, the UN estimates that temperatures will rise between 2.4 and 2.6°C by the end of this century.
“In the best-case scenario, full implementation of unconditional NDCs [Nationally Determined Contributions] and additional net-zero emissions commitments point to only a 1.8C increase, so there is hope. However, this scenario is not currently credible based on the discrepancy between current emissions, short-term NDC targets and long-term net-zero targets,” UNEP said.
“We had our chance to make incremental changes, but that time is over…Only a root-and-branch transformation of our economies and societies can save us from accelerating climate disaster,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP, who produced the study.
Although efforts towards net-zero GHG emissions are underway in energy, transportation, infrastructure, and industry sectors, the UN report states these actions must move “much faster”. The United States recently passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which contains hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for cleaner technologies. This promises to cut emissions by between 50 and 52 percent below 2005 levels by the end of this decade.
However, this law will only push the United States about 80 percent of the way to its current pledge to cut emissions, said Taryn Fransen, a senior fellow at the World Resources Institute. Niklas Höhne, founder of the NewClimate Institute in Cologne, Germany, said this new law was the strongest move made by a major emitter in 2022 but was “30 years overdue.”
The upcoming UN Climate Change Conference, COP27, is to be held this November in Egypt. A year of climate catastrophes and unfulfilled promises makes this year’s conference highly anticipated.
COP27: Disaster
Such climate disasters such as floods in Pakistan and Nigeria, record drought across the horn of Africa, and devastating heat waves in Europe are drowning developing nations in a sea of debt. Twenty nations most vulnerable to climate change owe a collective $685 billion to developed nations, however, they are pushing to halt payments of these debts.
“We are living not just on borrowed money but on borrowed time,” said Mohamad Nasheed, former president of the Maldives. He and many other leaders of low-lying island nations hope for the creation of an international fund in which nations can report climate disasters and receive compensation for losses and damage.
The US and other wealthy nations most responsible for climate change oppose the creation of such a fund, as they fear being held legally liable for such skyrocketing disaster costs.
“The latest U.N. report once again shows that those most responsible for the climate crisis remain unwilling to face up to their responsibilities…Unless urgent action is taken to hold richer countries to account, the developing world will continue to foot the bill, at the cost of numerous lives,” said Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-British businessman who has convened African leaders to discuss the climate crisis ahead of the summit in Egypt.
COP27: Reducing Emissions
The COP27 Conference also hopes to reassess the statements of the recent UN report: the broken promises made by numerous nations to reduce GHG emissions.
Although developing nations may potentially oppose aid to vulnerable nations this November, there is some hope for a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. John Kerry, President Biden’s climate envoy, called on China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and all other leading economies to align their climate policies with the goal of constraining global warming to 1.5 degrees.
“We all know the top 20 economies are responsible for 80 percent of emissions,” Mr. Kerry said during a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations. Their pledges should be strengthened this year, he said. However, just 26 of 193 countries that agreed last year to increase their climate actions have actually strengthened their pledges. The United States is not one of them.
Looking Forward
Reaching a 45% reduction in greenhouse gasses is a bold effort, and every nation must be on board to even attempt to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Numerous bleak reports from this year reveal the obstacles in the way of many governments.
For example, one report revealed that many governments spend more of their national budgets on fossil fuel subsidies than on public health measures. However, such knowledge can serve as an example of what must change to put every nation on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Another report raised more hope, citing the energy crisis as a result of the war in Ukraine as a catalyst for change, forcing many nations to rethink their energy systems and transition to sustainable, secure options.
Following a year of natural disasters, political unrest, economic crises, and critical reports from the United Nations and others, the COP27 will hopefully bring world leaders to put their half-baked promises back in the oven and leave with thorough plans to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and repair developing nations suffering the consequences of climate change.
